Ramex Naan introduces negative feedback and limits to growth to the discussion of “exponential” progress towards artificial intelligence. Whether one agrees with the “not anytime soon” conclusion, consideration of the computational complexity of increasing intelligence and the incentive structures of AI stakeholders is critical to understanding the likely progress of the field.
The Singularity is Further Than it Appears
tl;dr: Not anytime soon. Lack of incentives means very little strong AI work is happening. And even if we did develop one, it's unlikely to have a hard takeoff. I write relatively near-future science fiction that features neural implants, brain-to-brain communication, and uploaded brains. I also teach at a place called Singularity University.